兰陵王

在巴以冲突爆发之初，拜登政府选择暂时抛开与内塔尼亚胡之间的立场分歧，坚定站在以色列一边，表示要捍卫以色列“自我防卫的权利”。    WARSAW, Poland -- Polish opposition leader Donald Tusk declared the beginning of a new era for his country after opposition parties appeared to have won enough votes in Sunday's parliamentary election to oust the governing nationalist conservative party.That party, Law and Justice, has bickered with allies and faced accusations of eroding rule of law at home in its eight years in power. It appeared that voters were mobilized like never before, voting in even greater numbers than when the nation ousted the communist authorities in 1989. In some places people were still in line when polling officially closed, but all were allowed to vote. If the result predicted by an exit poll holds, Law and Justice won but also lost. It got more seats than any other party but not enough to be able to lead a government that can pass laws in the legislature. The Ipsos exit poll suggested that Law and Justice obtained 200 seats. Its potential partner, the far-right Confederation got 12 seats, a showing the party acknowledged was a defeat.It also showed that three opposition parties have likely won a combined 248 seats in the 460-seat lower house of parliament, the Sejm. The largest of the groups is Civic Coalition, led by Tusk, a former prime minister and former European Union president. It won 31.6% of votes, the exit poll said. “I have been a politician for many years. I’m an athlete. Never in my life have I been so happy about taking seemingly second place. Poland won. Democracy has won. We have removed them from power,” Tusk told his cheering supporters.“This result might still be better, but already today we can say this is the end of the bad time, this is end of Law and Justice rule," Tusk added.Law and Justice leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski acknowledged the ambiguous result. He told supporters at his headquarters that his party’s result, at nearly 37% of the vote, according to the exit poll, was a success, making it the party to win the most votes for three parliamentary elections in a row. “We must have hope and we must also know that regardless of whether we are in power or in the opposition, we will implement this (political) project in various ways and we will not allow Poland to be betrayed," Kaczynski said.If the result holds, and Law and Justice is the single party with the most seats, then it would most likely get the first chance to try to build a government.It falls to President Andrzej Duda, who is an ally of Law and Justice, to tap a party to try to form a government.Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Polsat News that Duda “will entrust the mission of forming the government to the winning party and in this first step we will certainly try to build a parliamentary majority."Three opposition parties, Tusk's Civic Coalition, Third Way and the New Left, ran on separate tickets but with the same promises of seeking to oust Law and Justice and restore good ties with the European Union.Wlodzimierz Czarzasty, a leader of the Left party, vowed to work with the others to “create a democratic, strong, reasonable and predictable government.”Katarzyna Pelczynska-Nalecz, the head of election campaign for Third Way, called it a “huge day for our democracy.”Votes were still being counted and the state electoral commission says it expects to have final results by Tuesday morning.At stake are the health of the nation’s constitutional order, its legal stance on LGBTQ+ rights and abortion, and the foreign alliances of a country that has been a crucial ally to Ukraine after Russia launched its full-scale invasion.LGBTQ+ rights activist Bart Staszewski called it the end of a “nightmare” for himself as a gay man and others.“This is just the beginning of reclaiming of our country. The fight is ahead but we are breathing fresh air today,” Staszewski said.Environmental activist Dominika Lasota was emotional with relief, saying “we have our future.”Law and Justice has eroded checks and balances to gain more control over state institutions, including the courts, public media and the electoral process itself.During the campaign many Poles described the vote as the most important one since 1989, when a new democracy was born after decades of communism.Turnout Sunday appeared to be even higher than the 63% of voters who turned out for the 1989 election that led to the ouster of the communists. Despite many uncertainties ahead, what appeared certain was that support for the governing party has shrunk since the last election in 2019 when it won nearly 44% of the vote, its popularity dented by high inflation, allegations of cronyism and bickering with European allies.There is a high level of state ownership in the Polish economy, and the governing party has built up a system of patronage, handing out thousands of jobs and contracts to its loyalists. A political change could open the way for the EU to release billions of euros in funding that has been withheld over what the EU viewed as democratic erosion.Piotr Buras, of the European Council of Foreign Relations, said the opposition had gained from “growing fatigue” with the government among Poles, "beyond the groups usually supporting the liberals.” The fate of Poland's relationship with Ukraine was also at stake. The Confederation party campaigned on an anti-Ukraine message, accusing the country of lacking gratitude to Poland for its help in Russia's war. Its poor showing will be a relief for Kyiv.A referendum on migration, the retirement age and other issues was held simultaneously. Some government opponents called on voters to boycott the referendum, saying it was an attempt by the government to galvanize its supporters. Many voters were seen refusing to take part in the referendum.___Associated Press journalists Kwiyeon Ha, Pietro De Cristofaro and Rafal Niedzielski contributed to this report.。

二 | 不过随着冲突持续进行，特别是加沙平民的死伤惨重，逐渐让拜登政府与以色列之间的分歧不断加大。

▲5月8日，一门以军自行火炮向加沙地带开火 新华社发

真正的转折发生在以色列对加沙南部城市拉法进攻的前夕。据新华社报道，美国总统拜登5月8日表示，如果以色列军队进攻加沙地带南部城市拉法，美国将不会为其提供炸弹等武器，美方此前向以方提供的炸弹被用于杀害巴勒斯坦平民。这番表态一出，立刻引起轩然大波。不仅美国国内的议员痛批拜登成为“亲哈马斯”团体一员，以色列总理、大使、部长等高官纷纷发出猛烈抨击。

西北大学以色列研究中心主任王晋表示，美国政府手里并没有更多可以用来约束以色列行动的有效制裁手段，而且目前以色列社会内部意见较为统一，哪怕作为国际社会的“孤勇者”也希望将战争进行下去。

拜登当地时间5月8日在接受采访时表态称，如果以色列军队攻击拉法，他将停止向以色列提供进攻性武器，其中包括炮弹和精确制导炸弹。白宫方面也一再敦促内塔尼亚胡不要向拉法派遣部队，因为那里有超过100万巴勒斯坦平民在暴力事件中寻求庇护。

媒体分析指出，拜登的表态是在为以色列在拉法的军事行动“划红线”，也相当于承认美国在以色列对加沙地带的军事行动造成大量平民伤亡的过程中“扮演了一定角色”。

对此，佛罗里达州共和党参议员里克·斯科特在做客“福克斯与朋友”节目中被问到对拜登最新表态的反应时，斯科特表示，“拜登一切都是为了选举而表演，他的本性就是如此。民主党里面有一个亲哈马斯团体，现在他也是其中一员了。”

斯科特认为，拜登对加沙提供的援助将为联合国近东救济工程处提供支持，而该机构十几名工作人员被指控参与了哈马斯10月7日的袭击事件，美国国会中的几名共和党人敦促拜登政府停止向近东救济工程处提供资金。

“拜登显然站在哈马斯一边。”斯科特称，“他想要援助资金，这样他就可以将其提供给哈马斯。”

据报道，拜登在5月6日与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡通话约一个半小时。他当时提前告诉内塔尼亚胡，如果以军进入拉法，美国将停止向以色列国防军运送武器。据了解谈话内容的消息人士称，内塔尼亚胡回答道，“如果有必要，我们将用指甲去战斗。”以色列高级官员证实，内塔尼亚胡的确有过这样的激烈言辞。

当地时间5月9日，在拜登公开了武器禁运的威胁之后，内塔尼亚胡又向以色列观众发表了视频讲话称，“如有必要，以军将用牙齿和指甲坚持战斗。”

以极端民族主义立场著称的以色列安全部长伊塔马尔·本·格维尔5月9日发布了一条带有心形图案推特，说哈马斯“喜欢”拜登，另外一名以色列政客也在视频频道节目中炮轰称，“现在美国在中东地区最好的朋友就是哈马斯了。”

一名以色列前官员对媒体表示，拜登的讲话震惊了以色列政府中的许多人，尤其是以色列国防军和安全部门。这名匿名的前官员说，以色列国防军内部对与拜登政府不断升级紧张关系非常担忧。

三 | 以色列国防军发言人丹尼尔▪哈加里在新闻发布会上表示，以色列有足够的武器在拉法展开行动，与拜登政府的分歧则将在“密室”中闭门解决。

拜登和内塔尼亚胡的一个主要矛盾在于，美国方面希望以色列慎重考虑军事打击对平民的伤害，而以色列社会则对推进战争具有较强的决心。

王晋表示：“以色列肯定会坚持到底的，这是他国内舆论所所决定的。从现在来看，以色列国内绝大部分人还是倾向于继续进行作战。

四 | 尽管被孤立，但是他们还是要做那种‘战斗的孤勇者’，所以从这个角度看，恐怕很难说国际社会对它（以色列）的这种压力会奏效。”

▲5月8日，在拉法一名男子转移受伤的儿童 新华社发

至于拜登提出的武器禁运等制裁手段，王晋认为也会收效甚微。王晋表示，其实美国方面的施压并不是从这一次开始，而是此前就逐步展开了，比如减少对以色列武器弹药（尤其是精确制导武器）的供应等。

五 | 不过这些制裁动作对于以色列来说“只能算是外力”，无法从根本上动摇以色列社会的共识。王晋认为，美国后续也很难拿出更多有效的（对以色列）制裁手段。所以总体来看，美国方面的制裁很难在短期内对以色列方面造成压力。

红星新闻记者 郑直  综合新华社 央视新闻